Saturday, April 4, 2020

CONFIDENTIAL: the political situation in Cameroon after Covid 19 makes France Uncertain

According to serious data in our possession, all the chancelleries of the great powers of the world are in turmoil, before the entry on the scene of the pandemic of Covid 19 in Africa, because they fear four serious consequences:

1) The risk of a high number of deaths due to the weakness or even the inexistence of the health systems of many African States, in particular French-speaking. Failed states, as Serge Michailof so aptly named them in his book "Africanistan". 

2) The risk of shortages of essential products due to the progressive paralysis of economies and the withdrawal of many executives of multinationals from a terrain undermined by the pandemic, in an African context where teleworking is a marginal practice and impossible in the areas of extraction of raw materials 

3) The risk of significant human losses at the heart of the political elites in power, with chaotic political transitions or successions which will not fail to be linked, 

4) The risk of definitive discrediting the institutional voice of African governments, especially autocratic, supplanted by the new masters of global political communication, social networks, new channels where African governments are dominated by opinion leaders, artists, religious guides, media intellectuals, Internet associations, and many charismatic opposition leaders. 

These four serious risks weighing on African countries under the Covid trigger 4 pairs of reactions: 

a) African dictatorial governments are tempted to lie as much as possible about the death toll of Covid 19, while political opposition will tend to overestimate it. A funeral quarrel has started on the whole continent, and it risks demobilizing a lot of energy, and worsening the number of human lives lost.

b) The shortage of basic necessities and the lack of money among the populations should turn around, in the very short term, in the form of popular angers unmanageable against incapable governments. It will be difficult for political opposition to control and capitalize on this anger, which raises fears of a real implosion of African countries. 

c) If the Covid 19 beheads many states from their old chiefs and other presidents of decrepit institutions, the inheritance battle risks drifting back to power by military chiefs, once the conventional constitutional mechanisms have been rendered inoperative: any French-speaking Africa is about to enter a period of unpredictable political revolutions. Will democracy and the rule of law finally triumph in Cameroon, Gabon, Congo, Ivory Coast, Togo, Chad, among other critical cases of persistent autocracies? French geostrategic diplomacy in Africa trembles with fright, if we judge by a diplomatic note of 24/03/2020, of the French Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs ... (It circulates on the net) 

d) The Covid pandemic opens an accelerated era of reorganization of political personnel in French-speaking Africa, since the confinement of the elderly who hold entire countries hostage risks being favorable to their imminent replacement by new political forces, which are in the process of to organize, sometimes with the benevolence of the great powers informed of the inevitable mutations which are necessary, if we want to avoid the world, the greatest humanitarian disaster it has known since the 2nd World War ... 

Finally, note the tremendous outcry from African opinions against attempts to guinea pig the African populations by certain industrial lobbies in the vaccine trade, blindly interested in Covid 19 Business. Far from being part of a conspiracy theory sometimes agitated by the communicants of the powers as a foil to put to sleep legitimate susceptibilities, the distrust of African opinions towards the global lobbies of vaccination should benefit from the objective contribution of competent African intellectuals, African experts in all fields, to make room for the laxity and collusion often proven of the autocratic regimes of Africa with the shameless multinationals of the money-king. 

The fight against the Covid 19 must be delivered within the framework of a citizen debate, public, transparent, uncompromising and without taboos. The salvation of the oldest continent of man is at this price.