Friday, August 2, 2019

Etoudi: Paul Biya does not live his last hours at the head of Cameroon

Cameroon is doing badly and very badly.At the twilight of his presidency, Paul Biya finds himself caught up by 37 years of governance.

Dropped by clear words by the United States, some even suspect France not to be far from turning its back on him. During his swearing of the oath last November 6th, the spike coming from the president of the national assembly, Cavaye Yeguie Djibril, will strike a blow: "you had promised on radio Monte Carlo to leave Cameroonians democracy and prosperity. Democracy is here and there. As for prosperity, it will come. " A slap from a cacique of power. The luster of the crown has diminished, even if it is still shrouded in gold. He whispers at Etoudi's palace that the chief is not happy about the cowardice of these partners who have in the past helped to strengthen his power. As for the United States, it is indeed since 2011 that they marked their turn. His candidacy at that time had been badly perceived, just like that of 2018, which took place in an even more particular context.

Peter Henry Barlerin, current US ambassador to Cameroon, had advised him to leave the scene, to think of his legacy, like Nelson Mandela or George Washington. The angry emotion of the ruling elite of Cameroon had not changed anything. As if to accept his words, the same ambassador, during a seminar organized for journalists in preparation for the 2018 presidential election, will declare: "I am 60 years old. At this age, I saw several people of my generation die.What's more, when you're old enough to be your president. It's normal to think about passing the baton. The United States has never congratulated the victory of Paul Biya in the 2018 presidential election. A few days ago, a State Department report on human rights questioned the victory of the Cameroonian president. indexing among others unacceptable irregularities.

The French are also starting to think of the alternative, even if it is done without fanfare. A well-introduced source in the French Embassy in Cameroon told us recently that "we have already asked President Biya to think about his legacy".

What the President of the Republic did not foresee is the American squall against him. It is a crescendo since Donald Trump at the United Nations General Assembly, which will say that America will stand up against these regimes that cut the Internet, abuse students, oppress freedom; to his under-secretary of state for African affairs, Tibor Nagy, who did not carry a gang against him.

The uppercuts have been chained since the announcement of the arrival of this man in Cameroon on an official visit from March 17 to 18. On the antennas of Rfi, he will describe the Cameroonian government measures taken in the context of the English crisis as inadequate and ineffective. The Americans are preparing to impose an inclusive dialogue that may result in a precipitous departure of Paul Biya. For the arrest of Kamto, he will ask for his immediate release. On France 24, in barely veiled words, Tibor Nagy will criticize the eternal reign of Paul Biya, source for him of all the misfortunes of Cameroon. Fortunately, Cameroon does not want to acquire the atomic bomb, but it is not far to be on the same scale as Iran or North Korea.

At the end of the hearing granted him by the Cameroonian president, Tibor Nagy will make statements that show that the Cameroonian president has left feathers.In stating that the Americans need a stable Cameroon, he meant that our country is unstable in the socio-political context. The Cameroonian president had to make many concessions, which is why the American plenipotentiary called him "wise" and "intelligent".

On the evening of his presidency, Paul Biya, who took up the cause for the hard wing of his advisers, multiplies the gaffes.In the Anglophone crisis, the military option was favored, despite opposing positions, particularly within the army. It is recalled that the former commander of the defense forces in the English-speaking area, General Melingui Nouma, had argued that it was impossible to win this war by the only means of arms. The conflict turned into a quagmire, he became Vietnamese.

In the same vein, Paul Biya has arrested Maurice Kamto, the leader of the Mrc who, on January 26, organized white marches. An arrest that has internationalized, putting Cameroon in the spotlight, which Paul Biya never liked.Kamto has become a bulky package in his hands. How to get rid today via an honorable exit?

In addition, Paul Biya understands that his management has turned his country into a vast insecure area. 5 out of 10 regions experience security jolts. Financially, Cameroon no longer holds. Inflation that strangles the citizens, endemic unemployment, growing indebtedness, the diktat of the FMI and the World Bank that recently asked Cameroon to reimburse certain expenses deemed unjustified, all this is ominous.

The regime only holds thanks to the gentrification of a certain elite. But for how long ? Meanwhile, feeling the end of reign, his ocean of power is more than ever infested with sharks ready for anything to succeed him.

The hawk operation, launched in 2006 to punish the ambitious, does not discourage. The ambitious are like hydra.No sooner is one head cut off than another arises. The clans of the same ethnic group clash for the control of the power and especially of the mechanism of succession. Old and weak, but always cunning, Paul Biya tries to resist. It is still perhaps far from a destiny to Mugabe or Bouteflika.