Sunday, December 23, 2018

Anglophone crisis: This is Paul Biya's dotted strategy

The controversy stemming from the presidential decision to widen prisoners guilty of crimes in the context of the current conflict in the two regions of the country does not disarm.

Beyond the punctual, it is the whole strategy of the power in this regulation which is declined in dotted line.

1-Noso: From crisis to war

Since Decree No. 2018/719 of 30 November 2018 establishing the National Committee on Disarmament Demobilization and Reintegration (Cddr), the Anglophone crisis has officially taken another qualification and should, therefore, closer to a war in both North West and South West regions (Noso).War, the word is dropped. And from then on, this reality fuels all the good wills to be massed on the doors of Cameroon in the well-understood interest of wanting to help it to find the way of the peace. Is ! It is well known that no state in this world can stand in the way of undermining its sovereignty in the name of humanitarian interference. This means in clear that with this conflict that will soon enter its third year, major military powers across the globe are eager to see peace return to Cameroon.This must be understood within the overall framework of the geostrategic management of the world. Thus, where major conflicts are born, they are there just as they intervene like firefighters to extinguish the inferno. US hegemony intervened in Iraq in 2003 to oust Saddam Hussein from power, on the grounds that he held weapons of mass destruction in his military arsenal. At the end of the disastrous intervention, no weapon was found and Saddam was hanged. A page was turned and until today, Iraq has not always recovered from this intervention. The establishment of the National Committee on Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration, followed by the enlargement of 289 prisoners, would be understood as initiatives of power aimed primarily at cutting the grass under the feet of "zealous interventionism".

2-The CNDDR is an exclusive instrument of power

In the other countries where there was war, the disarmament, demobilization and reintegration program was most often agreed by the belligerents, under the auspices of an international institution or power. In our context, the CNDDR should intervene when there is a cessation of hostilities. When the belligerent is armed, it is not clear by what tricks of the Committee coordinated by Fai Yengo Francis, we will bring him to deposit the weapon.This is why, in principle, it should come into play when the cease-fire is acted out and thereby recover the weapons in a very peaceful climate. In doing so, it is felt that the power does not want to be surprised by an agenda from elsewhere.This disarmament program, in other countries that have experienced the internal war, is very expensive. In RCA, for example, it took the Minusca and the World Bank to put their hands in their pockets to support the efforts of this country devastated by the war.

But in Cameroon, the government is in a logic of making peace by itself on its territory, without the intervention of an external force. It can not be brought to court when such a measure bears fruit.For now, the establishment of the CNDDR at the end of last month has not produced any results, even if it is too early to consider results. One may wonder in the name of what, a fighter will drop his weapon? Elsewhere, there is a sum of money paid to those who come to lay down their arms. It is also true that separatist fighters do not have a large arsenal and are generally satisfied with weapons that have been snatched from the security forces in ambush or smuggling. The second element that counts in this program is the amnesty for all belligerents. These two points seem for the moment not to be included in the CNDDR program. As a result, it would be necessary for the belligerents, even in their personal capacity, to lay down their arms. The President of the Republic has asked, but the measures that will facilitate this presidential requirement, are slow to materialize or to be visible.

3-The release of the 289 prisoners

The head of state has taken another step in the attempt of the power to resolve the conflict in the English-speaking part of the country. By enlarging 289 prisoners in the context of this conflict, public opinion generally thinks that it is a measure of appeasement. If this is the case, how will the release of prisoners incite the separatists to lay down their arms? One certainty is that the presidential decision is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, these young people who come out of prison are mostly victims of war who essentially lost everything in this war and are sometimes completely disconnected from any family ties. Such young people are addicted to violence, especially for those who have witnessed the murder of one of their own. In a war context, young people quickly acquire adult status through the excessive consumption of violence.

Generally to incorporate them into the ranks, some have them shoot cold-blooded men. Ahmadou Kourouma speaks with ease in his work, Allah is not obliged! Such a crime committed, this young can not go back to make repairs. The damage is done. On the other hand, these young people have measured the power they have when they have a weapon. They are therefore attached to the weapon and love it because they know the power that is at the end of the barrel. Fortunately, the presidential decision specifies that these are young people who have committed criminal acts, that is to say of lesser gravity. But we do not lose sight of the fact that in an asymmetrical war where children and women are in the front line, and generally with bare hands, the weapon is never far away.Men in uniform are generally very vulnerable in such a context because the law of war (jus in bello) forbids them to shoot children, women, in short, civilians who are not belligerent. We are reassured by the words of the minister delegate to the presidency of the Republic in charge of Defense who specified that no criminal, terrorist or other personnel guilty of serious violence will be expanded. In spite of all this, one must always ask a question: for which results? What is the overall government strategy in this conflict?

At first glance, we have this sad impression that the power poses dotted actions, that is to say we go from one action to another without understanding the contours of the previous one. This unfortunate situation can create a stagnation and even weaken the power in the area. The general trend is for public opinion to urge the authorities to organize a dialogue. In such a framework, the power would hold all the levers to give the content that would suit him to such a base. If the option of a dialogue is recorded, it goes without saying that strategists or actors in the shadows will invite themselves to the table. And that will only be beneficial for security in both regions.

4-The emergency humanitarian plan

This plan set up by the Head of State aims to provide multifaceted assistance to the victims of the war in the troubled part of the country. The budget of this plan is 12.7 billion FCFA. It must be run over a period of 18 months. The generosity of Cameroonians had been put to use. From the collection that began formally on June 21, 2018, one wonders what happened more than five months later. Cameroonian victims of this war have moved by tens of thousands to Nigeria. Internally, the displaced are more numerous, creating a situation of vulnerability for these populations forced to flee their living environment. Houses, schools, police stations, and other property are burned.How to rebuild if the emergency plan does not start quickly? And how would he start if there is no peace? As we can see, the Anglophone crisis is still going very well despite the various state measures.

This is the place to wonder about the link that exists between these different initiatives. The emergency humanitarian plan, the first of the three, is not yet in its active phase, which is already the power that created the National Committee on Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration. No sooner is it in the implementation phase that the head of state decides to expand 289 prisoners in the context of the Anglophone crisis.One wonders therefore which is the thread of these various initiatives? It is obviously the settlement of this conflict but, to accumulate the initiatives one after the other, one gets lost on the way of the efficiency. More than two years since it began, the conflict in the two English-speaking regions of the country has continued unabated without one of Paul Biya's decisions being made to reduce it. It becomes an emergency in Cameroon to revise the intelligence system in the management of this conflict that seriously affects the interests of the country and leaving, makes all the misfortune of Cameroon.